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(a) the formation of the Dow Theory
small order
Dow Theory is the oldest and most famous stock market technical analysis, since 1902, has now been officially named to a full one hundred years, and in this century has experienced the test of time, as today's the cornerstone of all the chart analysis. Almost everyone in the stock market heard the aisle's theory, even if not heard, and certainly access to the aisle's theory of the term, such as It not only according to the Dow-Jones Industrial average and the average volatility of railway shares, to explain and predict future stock market movements, but also as economic indicators.
(b) the Dow Jones index
Dow theory in detail before, it is necessary to explain the stock average. Not made in the Dow index before, many bankers and traders are aware, most of the company's stock price fluctuations tend to rise together with the fall, while those with the overall trend in the opposite case is rare, if any, the duration is usually also very short. Whenever a rising trend has emerged, some stocks than others to get up faster, or are slightly larger; when the trend began to turn bearish, there are always some stocks fell rapidly, while others show some resilience , so as to prevent this downward trend of the force - no matter how the majority of stocks tend to fluctuate with. Needless to say they are doing now and will always be the case. This phenomenon has been well known by people, but often the people for granted the phenomenon of importance is often overlooked cause, in fact, from whatever point of view are very important.
Charles Doyle made the final in 1895, the industrial index, representing all industries. Initially only a few stocks, whose number increased to 20 in 1916, and in October 1928 increased to 30, and has been maintained ever since. 1897 Charles Doyle has proposed a rail index, rail companies by the 20 component stocks, because in his time the railway company is a major industry.
Charles Doyle mainly use their Index compiled by the industrial and railway index, based on fluctuations in the direction they are to economic analysis and forecasting changes in industrial activities. Because industrial production index represents commodity, index generally representative of the majority of the railway transport of goods, and if both increased production and sales of goods that are smooth, the company's efficiency will be better; if the rail index and industrial index also fell, then the production and sales are sluggish, the company's efficiency began to decline. If only one index up or down, you can not make a clear conclusion on the market outlook, the need to wait two indices in the same direction to make a decision after the ups and downs.
worth mentioning is the founder of Dow Theory - Charles Doyle, claiming that the theory is not used to predict the stock market, not even used to guide investors, but a species reflecting the overall economic trend barometer. Because the stock market is a barometer of business changes, so Charles Doyle prices by analyzing changes in the past to speculate the future of business cycle evolution. Descendants according to logic, since the stock market is a barometer of the economy, then if you can predict the effectiveness of the company began to decline, the stock market is bound to follow down; Similarly, the company began to better efficiency, the result will inevitably result in the general price up. Stock market volatility and thus become a kind of a way of inference.
Charles Doyle is recognized, the first attempts to select some representative average prices to reflect the trend of the stock market has done a thorough efforts of people.
Dow theory in the 1930s reached its peak. At that time, October 23, 1929, This article is based on Dow theory put forward prediction, then really the most horrible place in the history of the stock market crash, the Dow Theory so famous.
(c) the use of the premise of the Dow Theory
Rhea believes that the use of Dow theory is correct based on three basic assumptions must be based on the acceptance must be unconditional.
(1) manipulation can not affect the original fluctuations.
index of short-term fluctuations may be artificially manipulated, intermediate trend may also be limited by this effect, but the original wave is definitely not artificially manipulated.
This is because the stock market very large, no individuals or groups have the ability to affect the overall long-term stock market trends. If the market's long-term trend can be manipulated, so that the Dow Theory would be no meaning.
(2) the market index will reflect each piece of information.
every understanding for the financial affairs of people, all his hopes, disappointments, will be reflected in the For this reason, the market index will always be the appropriate expected future events. If a fire or earthquake and other natural disasters, the market index will also be assessed quickly.
I also agree Dow corresponding view in his July 20, 1901 The Wall Street Journal said: It represents a serious and careful consideration of behavioral outcomes, those eyes profound and well-informed people, according to the event is expected to soon be known events, to adjust the price. stock index volatility reflects all market behavior in the stock market, you may find the political situation is stable, so buy the stock; others may feel that the macroeconomic to the good, so buy the stock; also that interest rates may be lower, it is worth buying the stock; and some people because of insider information, or that so-called imminent mergers and acquisitions of large companies, so buy early.
the contrary, when we have a different fear factor, it was thought that natural disasters will become increasingly serious; Some people think that political instability and panic; I am afraid that inflation was coming; was heard inside information that a large shareholder to goods; will cause them to sell their stock holdings. In short, no matter what attitude we have, even if a different point of view, for whatever reason, the stock index rise and fall changes are reflected in all of this. Investors should analyze the stock market reflects the mentality of the market index, stock index represents the views of the market outlook of the masses is the sum of market behavior.
(3) Dow Theory is not without error.
Dow Theory is not a foolproof, and can beat the market system. Successfully used it to help speculation, require in-depth research, and objectively and comprehensively, not wishful thinking can lead to think.
fact, not only is the Dow theory to be wrong, there is no way the market has judged very sure. Many areas of nature does not exist to accurately predict, because they do not necessarily fixed type, which includes the stock market price changes on the inside, as it changes and the weather forecast is not accurate. This is because the market is made up of people, and the ability of people to choose life, they are not specific judgments based on the stock market every day millions of people to do a market decision. Each decision will affect the stock price volatility, and volatility of stock prices would affect the person's wishes and in turn, affect the sale of stock prices. Therefore, the best theory can be done is, in most of the time to see the market make the right decisions, but not forever without any errors.
(d) of the basic elements of the Dow Theory
three trends of any market must exist,mont blanc ballpoint, the basic trends, secondary trends, short-term trend (Figure 1), any time, these three trends will inevitably exist, the direction may be opposite to each other, it may be the same. Distinguish between these three trends, the investment profits in the market the most important prerequisite.
(Figure 1)
1, the basic trend
three trends, the most important is the basic trend of the underlying trend known as the original trend that long-term stock price up or down trend. Each rally is a continuing upward through the previously created by the high point in the middle mixed trend will not decline below the previous wave decline down to the lowest point. In short, as long as the upward trend is the high and low have been high the price of a new composition. This basic trend is upward, known as the bull market (Figure 2); Instead, each continuous period of decline are created by down below the previous low in the middle of the rebound will not be mixed up through the previous waves bounce highs. In short, the downward trend from the low and high points are a series of falling prices pose, it's called a bear market (Figure 3).
(Figure 2) (Figure 3)
duration of the underlying trend may be about a year, possibly as long as several years. The right to determine the basic direction of the trend, the success of investment behavior is the primary factor. Basic trend is generally long-term investment in three trends in the only consideration. If one investor confidence in long-term trend, as long as he can determine the bull market has started in the early formation of a bull market buy stocks, has been held to determine the bear market has been formed and then sold.
no known way to predict in advance the size of the underlying trend and the magnitude of the period length. Nevertheless, we can use the historical price trend information, to summarize the main trends of statistical methods in general or with the time period in advance to make appropriate expectations.
bull market
bull market, also known as the original rise, it can be divided into three phases, the first stage is the purchase period. At this stage, some far-sighted investors, although the market is aware of the downturn phase, but a change soon, so buy those big decline, the relative performance of the company guaranteed excellent performance shares. Although a few investors dared to buy a small amount, but they are still wary of stocks. Atmosphere is usually very pessimistic when the market, the average stock market investor is hatred, or even left it in despair. At this point the volume is modest, but when the bounce to zoom. This phase of the late, over time, investors are willing to sell fewer and fewer large insider news agencies and investors have confidence in investors, began to improve the buying price, resulting in stock price began to gradually up. But the market because of heavy selling pressure, so prices seem hobbled. With the involvement of more and more large organizations, the second phase begins.
With the start of the second stage, a lot of very steady rise in stock prices, trading volume gradually enlarge. At this point the rise in business sentiment and increased earnings news, attracted the attention of the majority of investors. At this stage, investors who use technical analysis can usually get the maximum benefit. Investors for profit or for someone else's profit effect and confidence, more active trading. This is the most rapid rise in stock prices period. Finally, the third phase finally appeared.
boiling point of the market, people gathered at the Stock Exchange, trading results often appear in newspapers and magazines of the At this stage, my friends often talk about is The last part of this stage, with the speculative atmosphere of high volume continued to rise. Unpopular stocks trading were frequent, there is no investment value of the crazy junk stocks rising rapidly. Shares listed in the non-stop, but there are more and more merit-class shares, investors refused to follow up. These phenomena occur, is often a harbinger of the end of the bull market.
According to Dow theory from 1896 to 1988 the market index to be classified statistics, bull market, the main common features are the following:
(1) from the previous bear market low starting point, the major bull market, prices rose an average of 77.5%.
(2) the length of the major bull market period, the average of two years and four months (2.32 years). History of all the bull market, 75% of the period length of more than 657 days (1.8 years), 67% between 1.8 and 4.1 years in between.
(3) bull market trend in the mid-level adjustment, the decline is usually more severe the previous and subsequent rally, the other returned to the start of trading volume trend is usually quite large, but fell to lows of volume is small.
bear market
bear market down trend known as the original, can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is the delivery period, the formation of the time it really is the end of the front end of a bull market phase. At this stage, far-sighted investors and stock manipulator, began to perceive corporate earnings have peaked, stock price exceeds the actual value of the lot, unreasonable longer be maintained, which began to accelerate the speed of shipping. At this time a large volume, most investors still keen to trade, is the most active period. With the growing intensity of shipping agency, the second phase began silently.
second stage is the panic period, with shipments of large institutions, stock prices started to decline gradually. At this stage, people began to want to buy less and want to sell the others hurry to sell, suddenly accelerated the trend of falling prices is almost perpendicular to the degree. In the panic after the end of the period, usually a long rebound or secondary lateral movements. At this stage, the stock fell sharply focused on the junk stocks. On the surface, the second phase of selling reflects the economic conditions and corporate earnings recession. Then the third stage arrived.
this stage is a lack of confidence by those investors, desperate to sell the stock for the perfect result. Regardless of the value of how many people are eager to seek at least part of the stock. No investment value of low-priced, may in the first or second stage all the gains already fallen. This stage is more good stock performance, with the continued bad news came last fall, because the holder of such stock is often the last to lose confidence. The final stage of the bear market decline, focusing on the good performance of these stocks. Last bear market in case of bad news stories of the end, the worst has been expected of the stock. The bad news usually do not completely out before the bear market is over. This stage is the most lethal, the index fell sharply in this phase.
Rhea found in the observation, the bear market of peripheral stage, any pessimism and bad news, they can not make the stock market fell further. However, serious setbacks, the stock seemed to lose the ability to rebound. All the signs are that the market has reached equilibrium. Speculation is not active, it will not be sold down the stock price behavior, while the buyer is unable to push up the power price, the market is shrouded in an atmosphere of pessimism. Some large companies usually in financial difficulties, dividend was canceled, the company a lot of layoffs. Because of these reasons, the stock price will show the trend of consolidation in a narrow width. Once a clear trend to break up this narrow, the market index will appear Bobby wave of high-rise trend, in which neither the decline in mixed wave decline below the previous low, it is often the beginning of a new trend.
According to Dow theory from 1896 to 1988 the market index to be classified, summed up the bear market of the following characteristics:
(1) from the previous bull market highs since the beginning of the bear market decline an average of 29.4%, of which 75% of the stock decline between 20.4 to 47.1 percent between.
(2) the average bear market duration is 1.1 years, 75% of the stock took 0.8 years to 2.8 years in between.
(3) bear market begins, usually at a lower volume to test the previous bull market high, then plunge a large number of trend. The so-called Volume is low confidence decline shows very easily be turned into
(4) After a very long period of decline, the sudden appearance of rapidly rising trend of anti-sub off, then start small correction price, trading volume was beginning to shrink, then stock prices will continue to new lows .
(5) secondary bear market rally, usually presented upside-down One low-cost high volume, low volume and high price, minus the whole showing a rising values, a drop in price increase in volume of the signs.
2, sub-trend
as secondary anti-fold fluctuations in trend with the underlying trends in the opposite direction, and the basic trends have to contain the effects of these trends contrast with the basic trend has been called off anti-trend correction. Secondary reentrant important trend is the decline in the bull market trend, or an important bear market rally. Most of the exhumation of the trend rate of secondary correction, a major trend is about the former band (between the two sub-movements between the main trend of return) of 1 / 3 to 2 / 3 between the duration of three weeks to between three months. For the historical trend for all the amendments, of which 61% return rate, the main trend of the previous band of approximately 30% to 70%. 65% of the return period ranged between three weeks to three months, of which 98.4% between between two weeks to eight months. As of 1990,
speed of price changes is another feature, compared with the major trends, secondary trends have returned to a tendency to spike. Secondary trend is the main consideration of speculators, speculators concerned about the secondary trend, the trend in the secondary purpose is to find a more accurate time to buy or sell as much as possible to maximize profit or minimize losses.
trend sometimes may be secondary to and from disk Council replaced a disk Council in one or both indices, the last two about 3 weeks, sometimes for several months, the price of fluctuations is only about 5%. Such fluctuations show the balance of power balance of buyers and sellers. But in the end at this price the stock held by investors who have been reluctant to sell their shares, and investors who want to sell, buy price must increase to induce them to sell the stock. Another is that as time goes on, in this price investors have to buy less and less, some investors holding stocks and found that they can not sell shares in the disk Council, so low cheap sale for quick turnover. Bureau of ceiling price break up the plate, is a continuation of the bull market. On the contrary, down below the lower limit of disk Bureau, it is the beginning of bear market. Generally speaking, the longer disk Bureau, the narrower price fluctuations, the more likely it is the final breakthrough.
disk Council often develop into an important form of top and bottom form, representing the shipping and receiving, but they appear in the finishing stages of the main trends of the rest more. They tend to replace the secondary from the trend. An index is likely to form a disk Bureau, while another has developed into a typical secondary and from the trend. Set up or break down in the Council, sometimes in the same direction to continue to stay for a longer period of time, it is not surprising.
determine whether the correct market trend, we must change with volume, revised statistics and historical trends of the general attitude of market participants. However, a trend, whether it is secondary return movements, or the end of the original trend, there is no clear break in the signal, we can not make the right draw a conclusion.
Rhea trend compared to the secondary return the pressure in the boiler control system. In the bull market, the trend is equivalent to the secondary return valve, can release the pressure in the market overbought. In the bear market, the trend is equivalent to sub-amendment to add fuel to the boiler to supplement the loss of pressure oversold.
3, short-term trends
short-term price trend is reflected in the changes within a few days, they are short-term fluctuations. Short-term trends rarely more than three weeks, usually less than six days, 98.7% of short-term trend continues for longer than two weeks. Secondary trend or whether it is the main trend, by a series of several or more short-term fluctuations in composition.
traders will always consider only short-term trends, speculators and investors are only a few cases, only concerned about short-term trend, the trend in the short term goal is to find the best buy or sell opportunity to maximize profit or minimize losses. Although short-term trend itself does not make sense, but making major trends mysterious rich and varied colors. Whether or not a mature stock market, short-term changes are only to be manipulated, so these short-term changes by the inference to be drawn very easily lead to wrong conclusions. The secondary trend is the major trends and can not be manipulated, and only the country's financial sector may have limited adjustment.
fluctuations in the stock market trend like the ebb and flow of the three as the main trends like high tide and low tide in the process. Bull market is like the tide, wave and then a wave and kept up until the highest point, and then gradually receded. Bear market is like low tide, a wave than a wave, showing a general downward trend. High tide and low tide in the whole process, one wave is the secondary wave, the sea's surface is covered with ripples, and the market in which short-term changes in the same sense. Tides, waves, ripples, respectively, represent the main trend of the market, the secondary trend, short-term changes
(e) determine the principles of Dow Theory
1, with the two indices to determine the future trend of the market.
Dow theory, mainly through analysis of railway and industrial change in the direction of two indices, to determine the bear market and bull markets start. Only through these two indices with changes in direction to be able to judge as the basis for the final.
bear market confirmation day, the railway index and industrial index, are breaking down a bull market correction trend of recent low of date. Two indices breakthrough time may be different, this is normal.
bull market finally confirmed by the railway index and industrial index at the same time to break up a bear market correction before the high point of the trend and continued to rise when the two indices may be time to break differences, it is very normal.
2, the closing price of the first place.
Dow Theory does not attach importance to a day in the lowest, highest price, opening price, closing price and only paid attention to. This is because the tight closing price is to promote the only people who read the financial pages to see the importance of price, is the investor's stock price on the day of the final results of the evaluation, the majority of people according to the price for trading decisions, so the closing price on the first place.
3, with the volume to determine the trend changes.
volume changes are usually followed by stock price changes. Therefore, the volume can also determine the major trends in supplemental. In bull markets, volume increased with the rise in stock prices, stock prices fall with reduction; in the bear market, most trading volume increases as shares fell, with the rise in stock prices reduced. But this is only the general situation, and sometimes there are exceptions. Therefore, the correct conclusion, not only by changes in volume as the basis for a few days. In the Dow theory, the final conclusion can only be produced by the indices, turnover only in the case of some doubt, provide an explanation for reference.
(f) the actual verification of Dow Theory
many people skeptical of the Dow Theory, Dow Theory to verify whether there are practical significance, it was specifically selected the Dow Jones index July 12, 1897 to 1956 the trend of 60 years to verify the Dow Theory have practical significance.
He just $ 100 from July 12, 1897 put into the Dow Jones Industrial Average (if he is traded index), he is the only basis for the trading of Dow Theory buy signal is provided, as buy time. Provided to Dow Theory sell signal as the time to sell, other times not out. Sixty years later he's operating results are as follows:
through 60 years of trading in 1897 as long as we put $ 100 in strict accordance with Dow theory, the prompts to start the operation, not to subjective decisions, so that by 1956 became 11236.65 U.S. dollars. The annual return on equity was 8.3% actually, this is really exciting answers.
Although this is not perfect methods of operation, the actual application process, will encounter some of the not wholly satisfactory, but in the end long-term performance is very good, although did not take into account commissions and stamp duty , but also did not get the dividend should be included. We can be sure that, if considering the commission should be deducted, taxes, and then added into the profits should get dividends, then there is no doubt a lot of profit will increase rather than decrease.
other hand, the so-called pure long-term investors, if still stick to only to a transaction, even in this period to buy the lowest point and then sell at the highest point. (This is essentially impossible) to say, August 10, 1896 reached the lowest point of 29.64 when buying a $ 100 investment to the highest point of the period that sell, that is, 60 years after the April 6, 1956 of 521.05, only added to the 1757. This strictly follow the rules of operation Dow results, 11236.65 yuan gap is very large. From this point to see the Dow Theory is not only theoretical value, but also has practical
(g) I understand the Dow theory
so far a lot of investors, including some so-called experts, the Dow Theory has a deep misunderstanding. They always hope to find a simple, yet able to beat the market. Like finding a pot of gold, into a sesame seed, it becomes twelve gold. In fact, in the stock market is impossible. Disappointed, they began to accuse the Dow Theory, it can not be instructive for the mid-market, also said Dow Theory of stock picking does not help, and some even reaction is too slow, said Dow Theory. In short, these accusations are numerous variety. What can we say? Things in the world is not perfect, in the stock market, the analysis can not have a perfect system. If there was a loss, how will it?
in China's stock market, to determine the use of Dow Theory bear market coming, or the beginning of the bull market is not possible, because in China's stock market, the railway index does not exist, but the Road Dow Theory still has a great significance.
real contribution to the Dow Theory is that of the overall market trend. By the previous study we can see that the Dow theory, the entire bear market and bull market is divided into three stages. Through the front of these characteristics of the various stages of understanding, so that we clearly understand the market characteristics of different stages of the cycle and a complete change in investor psychology. Dow Theory in various stages of the basic characteristics of the stock market, in a mature market is almost constant. For example the end of the bull market shares by garbage starring, until 1999 the NASDAQ Internet stocks frenzy appears, once again a testament to Dow theory, the third stage of the bull market shares mainly by the significant increase in garbage predictions. Subsequently, the first phase of the bear market of Internet stocks plunged, and the first stage of verification of the bear market shares of the master or by the garbage. In the Dow theory, the bull market began, is in a bearish market atmosphere, and the start of the bear market is in a promising sound, etc. These characteristics of the various stages from start to finish has never changed. Alternating bull and bear markets, on behalf of the investing public of the change process chips, or height and each process may be longer or shorter time period, but their difference only of degree, and will not be fundamentally different. Only by understanding the changes in the market each period and characteristics, we can from these characteristics, to understand at what stage the market is, what measures should be taken.
Looking back a century ago, Rhea writings we can find: Rhea was the history of the Dow Jones index of all prices, according to the type, size and magnitude of the length of the period were classified. He was only 30 years of data available for reference, but very surprisingly, he was classified results, and now have large amounts of data statistics, almost no difference between the two. For example, the magnitude and trend of the secondary from the formation time, regardless of bull and bear markets, respectively, or a combination of classified information, the data was almost identical with Rhea, the only difference is that only the amount of information. This phenomenon clearly told us that despite the changes in the world have changed with the rapid development of technology, investment in people fly and for generations, but the psychological factors that cause price fluctuations are similar, almost no change. Whether past changes in the market today or tomorrow, the leading market volatility is the essence of the eternal. All stock price volatility have their origins in changes in investor psychology.
example, Dow theory, the second in the bull market during the first phase, major blue chip stocks are rising, and the third phase is formed by the junk shares, this is not what the letter did not cause the mouth nonsense . From the investment of psychological terms, the first two stages in the market, investors have in the past to greater losses, risk awareness is very strong, so the rise in the market outlook is usually more doubts. The blue chip stocks with performance support, so they are usually able to accept psychologically, investors holding stock ownership is more stable, which is more easy to lift. If you are the first and second stage is the junk stocks, I am afraid not many people willing to follow up, the stock is slightly echoed, holding a large number of people were not confident it will sell, institutions tend to absorb an empty stomach goods, is not able to successfully pull lift stock prices. Only in the late bull market, the profitability of the investing public with their desire to trade stocks with earnings growing confidence, coupled with the large blue-chip stocks has been or is no longer suitable for a substantial lift the market by an optimistic psychological parity, investors are beginning to recognize trash stocks, only then can take the main large variety of subjects, significantly raised the junk shares and unpopular stocks.
on the decline during the bear market of the first stage and second stage is dominated by the junk stocks fell. This is because this type of stock held by investors, often there is no confidence, the temptation by the subject matter, a sign of trouble to get away, so the beginning of junk stocks in a bear market began to decline sharply. The third phase of the bear market, the main drop is blue chip stocks, blue chip stocks this is because the holder is usually the last to give up hope. In the bear market started, despite continued bad, but believe that blue chip stocks in the hands of the holder of the stock to withstand the test of time, but then most of the stocks plummeted, so that superior performance shares held by investors' confidence suffered a serious setback, and at this time real bad was only honored, people really started investing a lot of despair began to sell blue chip shares. Therefore, we need to analyze market characteristics of each, through their understanding of investor psychology changes. Because each feature is a product of changes in investor psychology. Understanding of the Dow theory, the real investors is on the public understanding of psychology. As long as we understand the psychological structure of investment and change, it can be truly understand the market, and thus understand the reasons for changes in the market. This is no desire to be successful investors the necessary courses.
review the aforesaid think it is easy to understand, the original stock market technical analysis methods, although all different, in fact they are on the market from different angles of observation, revealing that they are ultimately reflected in the nature of investment in various stages of psychological changes, The changes in the market led investors to the real reason is that the psychological changes.

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